Epoch AI estimates 72% of AI compute since 2022 reached the US
Epoch AI launched the AI Chip Imports explorer, which estimates AI compute arriving in countries quarter by quarter since 2022 using customs records from 16 major destinations. It estimates 27.4 million H100-equivalents arrived from 2022 through June 2026, with 72% going to the US and about 10% to China including domestic production. The explorer complements Epoch's AI chip sales and AI data center datasets.
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Epoch AI launched the AI Chip Imports explorer, which estimates AI compute arriving in countries quarter by quarter since 2022 using customs records from 16 major destinations. It estimates 27.4 million H100-equivalents arrived from 2022 through June 2026, with 72% going to the US and about 10% to China including domestic production. The explorer complements Epoch's AI chip sales and AI data center datasets.
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- 01Who is making each claim?
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- 02What was actually tested?
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- 03Where are the sources?
Original link: epoch.ai. Brief basis: fetched source page. Primary page date and quote locations are not established in this panel.
- 04What could mislead?
Customs codes mix AI and non-AI chips, arrival does not confirm operation, undeclared smuggled shipments are not captured, and China's import estimate ranges from 1.9 to 4.2 million H100e. Source claims not independently checked.
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- 06What would change the view?
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Key findings from the stored brief
- Of 27.4 million H100e arriving from 2022 through June 2026, an estimated 72% went to the United States.
- China, including domestic production, received about 2.6 million H100e (10%), with domestic chips making up about 40% of China's total.
- Customs-derived chip spending came within 4% of Epoch's chip sales estimates cumulatively, though quarterly figures differ by about 15% on average.
Customs codes mix AI and non-AI chips, arrival does not confirm operation, undeclared smuggled shipments are not captured, and China's import estimate ranges from 1.9 to 4.2 million H100e. Source claims not independently checked.
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Evidence & sources
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Epoch AI launched an explorer that uses customs records to estimate where AI chips end up by country and quarter since 2022. Central estimate: 72% of AI compute in the US and about 10% in China, including domestic chips; China holds a larger share of chips than of compute because much of its hardware is lower-performance. Estimates, not disclosed deployments.
Customs codes mix AI and non-AI chips, arrival does not confirm operation, undeclared smuggled shipments are not captured, and China's import estimate ranges from 1.9 to 4.2 million H100e. Source claims not independently checked.
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- x post ↗ · 455 likes, 77 reposts, 22 replies, 20 quotes · observed 10/28/2026, 4:11:15 PM
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Why this may matter
The estimates give researchers and policymakers a public view of where AI compute is located, which bears on export controls, economic competitiveness, and military power. Countries that host large AI data centers gain influence over how frontier models are used.
Limits and open questions
Customs codes mix AI and non-AI chips, arrival does not confirm operation, undeclared smuggled shipments are not captured, and China's import estimate ranges from 1.9 to 4.2 million H100e. Source claims not independently checked.
Organization-specific financial, security, and operational effects require the organization's own context and review.
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