AI is dramatically accelerating AI research
An opinion post by Ajeya Cotra discussing a METR report on AI R&D acceleration at Anthropic.
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One primary source; other links are context, not independent corroboration.
- Primary sourceplanned-obsolescence.org
- Discovery linkHacker News
- Linked in sourceAnthropic stated in their S1
- Linked in sourcetheir latest RSP (effective July 2026)
- Linked in sourcetheir report
- Linked in sourceEpoch Capabilities Index
- Linked in sourcethe Hugging Face attack
- Linked in sourcethe AI 2027 team
- Linked in sourcereach the effective ceiling on software efficiency
- Linked in sourcedisempower humanity
- Linked in sourcein an earlier version of Anthropic’s RSP (May 2025)
- Linked in sourceOpenAI
- Linked in sourceAnthropic
- Linked in sourcemonitoring
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An opinion post by Ajeya Cotra discussing a METR report on AI R&D acceleration at Anthropic. The post says Anthropic's RSP threshold of 'dramatically accelerated progress due to AI' has likely been crossed, citing an internal capabilities index (AECI) showing progress about twice as fast as the prior twelve months. Much of the report's supporting evidence is redacted, and the author did not work on the project or see the unredacted report. The post then models implied researcher speedups and the risk of compounding acceleration.
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Source claims not independently checked; key supporting evidence is redacted and the post is a speculative opinion piece.
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Source claims not independently checked; key supporting evidence is redacted and the post is a speculative opinion piece.
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Post says a METR report found Anthropic capabilities progress from Oct 2025 to Oct 2026 was about twice as fast as the prior twelve months.
Source: planned-obsolescence.org ↗Stored source-based brief · key point 1 · AINewsIQ paraphraseThe author states the report's supporting evidence is largely redacted, including what the authors called a majority of their most informative evidence.
Source: planned-obsolescence.org ↗Stored source-based brief · key point 2 · AINewsIQ paraphraseThe author estimates a roughly 10x labor uplift would be needed to sustain doubled progress, and notes this roughly matches informal staff self-reports of about 12x.
Source: planned-obsolescence.org ↗Stored source-based brief · key point 3 · AINewsIQ paraphraseLimits from the stored brief
Source claims not independently checked; key supporting evidence is redacted and the post is a speculative opinion piece.
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Why this may matter
If accurate, the claim suggests AI may already be substantially speeding up AI research, which bears on timelines and safety planning. The reasoning relies heavily on redacted evidence and extrapolation.
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Source claims not independently checked; key supporting evidence is redacted and the post is a speculative opinion piece.
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